This is an interactive tool that allows users to calculate the skill of forecasts, which is a relative measure of how the forecasts performed. Knowledge of forecast skill can help users when using forecasts for decision making.

Instructions for use:

  1. Select type of skill score output display desired ("Chart" or "Map").
  2. Select Forecast and Verification Options.
  3. For "Chart", select region(s) to verify ("Climate Regions","States","Climate Divisions"). For "Map", select dates(s) to verify ("Date Range","Months/Seasons & Years","Climate Phenomena").
  4. Click the "Get Scores" button.

Click here for more information

Scroll down the page to see the results, error messages, and information panel.

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Options

Forecast options
  • Field [ ? ]
  • Period [ ? ]
  • Lead time [ ? ] 8 days
    Lead time [ ? ] 11 days
    Lead time [ ? ]
    0.5 Month (Official)
    0 Month (Revised)
    Lead time [ ? ]
    Lead time [ ? ]
  • Data format [ ? ]
    Data format [ ? ]
  • Forecast(s)
    (Select one) [ ? ]
    CPC Official (Manual)
    CPC Official (Auto)
    Select forecast models
    Forecast(s)
    (Select one) [ ? ]
    CPC Official (Manual)
    Forecast(s)
    (Select one) [ ? ]
    CPC Official (Manual)
    Forecast Models
    SMLR OCN
    CCA CFS
    Forecast(s)
    (Select one) [ ? ]
    CPC Official (Manual)
Verification options
  • Skill Score [ ? ]
  • Forecast categories
    [ ? ]

2

Valid Dates

Dates represent the center of the valid period of the forecast(s) to verify.

  • Start date [ ? ]
    Start date [ ? ]
  • End date [ ? ]
    End date [ ? ]

You can select multiple months/seasons for either all years or select years. Your "Forecast" selection will show either "Months" or "Seasons" as options.

  • Select months: Click on each, unselect by clicking again.
  • Select years: Hold down the Command button while making selections (Ctrl on Windows/Linux, Apple on Mac OS X).
  • Range of years: Hold down the Shift button and select the first and last years.

Months

JanFebMarApr
MayJunJulAug
SepOctNovDec
JanFebMarApr
MayJunJulAug
SepOctNovDec
JanFebMarApr
MayJunJulAug
SepOctNovDec
Dec-FebJan-MarFeb-AprMar-May
Apr-JunMay-JulJun-AugJul-Sep
Aug-OctSep-NovOct-DecNov-Jan

Years

All years
Select years

Select a climate phenomena, then select which event/phase of the phenomena for which you would like to verify. Jan 2001 is the earliest forecast used in the results even though climate phenomena events may start earlier.

Seasonal ENSO [ ? ] ENSO events

3

Please select options from the form

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Warnings and Errors

5

Information

Settings Used